La Liga: The Title Race Heads to Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

The best La Liga race in recent history is gathering pace and this weekend the match of the week sees leaders Barcelona visit third place Atletico Madrid.

Just a single point separates the top three, Barca and Real Madrid on 57 points and Atleti on 56. The Catalans have a game in hand after their last league match was postponed due to the tragic passing of club doctor Carles Minarro Garcia, but in midweek they played their Champions League second leg against Benfica, winning 3-1 and 4-1 on aggregate.

Meanwhile, Los Rojiblancos have had a tough week, losing their last league game away to Getafe and then, despite beating Real Madrid in their Champions League second leg, Diego Simeone’s men went out on penalties. So while the Atleti manager has a rebuilding job to do, his opposite number, Barca boss Hansi Flick is balancing three priorities, still in Europe and in the Copa del Rey. In fact, Barca and Atleti met each other in the Copa semi-final, drawing 4-4 in the first leg and with the tie to be completed in Madrid early in April.

There are a huge two months ahead and with 11 rounds of the Primera Division to play the La Liga 2025 betting odds have brought the Blaugrana in to SBOTOP odds of 1.52 to win the title and, after their surprise loss to Getafe, have kicked Los Rojiblancos out to 7.50.

Things can change quickly though!

 

Talking Points

Atleti are digging deep

You have to feel sorry for Los Rojiblancos after they did everything right in their Champions League clash with Real Madrid, apart from winning it. Still in the tie after the first leg at 2-1, Atleti flew out of the blocks and levelled within a minute through Conor Gallagher and then they kept Los Blancos at arms length, though Vinicius Junior spurned a golden chance in normal time, skying a penalty. But when the shootout came Atleti’s luck ran out when Julian Alvarez slipped, and even though he fired the ball home he was judged to have double tapped the ball and Real Madrid had the impetus.

That defeat came on the back of a surprise loss away to Getafe and now Atletico must dust themselves off and go again, in another huge clash. A draw would not be a disaster for the hosts but, without a good result in three outings, Los Rojiblancos really need a boost. And the way to earn that is to put on a Simeone master-class and somehow frustrate the buoyant Catalans. The centre back partnership of Jose Gimenez and Clement Lenglet is in the Atleti mould and midfielder Rodrigo de Paul, with three goals and three assists, is a metronome in the middle, supporting strikers Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez, who have ten goals each, while the evergreen Antoine Griezmann still has a match-winning performance in him.

 

Flick is clicking for Barca

While Atleti have suffered over the past week or so things have been going pretty well for Flick in Barcelona and while Los Rojiblancos’ hearts were being broken the Catalans were celebrating another great night of European football as Raphinha, with two goals, and 17 year old Lamine Yamal, with a beauty, saw off the Portuguese side. As their last scheduled league game, against Osasuna, was sadly postponed, Barcelona’s last league outing was a 4-0 destruction of Real Sociedad as Robert Lewandowski scored his 21^st goal of the campaign. Brazilian winger Raphinha has scored 13 in the league while the teen sensation Yamal has made 11 assists and these three are backed up by a top class midfield trio of Frenkie De Jong, Dani Olmo and Pedri. 

While Olmo and Pedri have been in superb form for club and country, Olmo starring as Spain won Euro 2024, De Jong has had a difficult couple of years but he’s in the best form of his life, putting in more than his fair share of La Liga 2025 highlights as the Blaugrana click through the gears.    

 

History

Atleti have performed well against the Blaugrana this season, winning 2-1 in Barcelona and then the two teams drew 4-4 in the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg in February.  

With five wins and a draw from the last six games Flick’s team is in fine form while Simeone’s men have laboured recently with two wins, two losses and a draw, and then a penalty shootout loss on Wednesday.

 

Betting Tip

Atletico are priced at 2.65 to win this six-pointer with the draw at 3.29, and Simeone’s men will certainly put in a well organised and committed performance, as they invariably do.

But, while Atleti have suffered two setbacks this week, the Blaugrana seem to be gathering momentum at the perfect time and I suspect a 2-1 win to Barcelona, at odds of 8.48, won’t be far from the mark.   

   

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