UEFA Nations League: Italy and France in Exhibition Clash

Italy vs France

They are already guaranteed a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals as the confirmed top two in Group A2, and now Italy and France are set to meet for the final group clash on Sunday, and top spot is the last prize on offer. 

When the two nations met in the competition opener back on the 6^th September the Azzurri put down a marker with a 3-1 win at the Parc des Princes; and now they can finish the job on home soil. Both teams were in action on Thursday when Italy picked up a 1-0 win away to Belgium and France played out a goalless draw at home to Israel.

There isn’t a lot to choose between these two nations in the latest FIFA World Rankings, last updated at the end of October, with Luciano Spalletti’s Italy climbing up the third place and just three behind Didier Deschamps’ France; and we expect a tight affair when they clash in Milan.   

 

Talking Points

Tonali happily back in the fold for Italy

The Azzurri took their chance to take charge of the group on their visit to Belgium on Thursday and it was Newcastle United midfielder Sandro Tonali who scored the only goal of the game when he stole in to meet a pass from Giovanni Di Lorenzo and slide the ball home from six yards. It was Tonali’s first international goal in 20 appearances and a great way to celebrate his return from a season long ban he copped due to betting breaches.

Tonali is still only 24 and in the summer of 2023 he had just become the most expensive Italian player of all time when he switched from AC Milan to Newcastle for a reported fee of 70m Euros. The defensive midfielder, who has been likened to the great Andre Pirlo, can also play further forward and he scored seven goals in his 70 games for I Rossoneri. A strong, fast and elegant player Tonali is a joy to watch when he’s on his game and, after a terrible 12 months he is enjoying every game he plays. 

In the wake of an odd period for Italian football when they failed to qualify for two World Cups while winning the European Championship, Spalletti’s team is in transition but is playing with togetherness and the steeliness of the Azzurri teams of old. Italy held off a talented Belgium team on Thursday and matched them for possession and shots, though Red Devils centre back Wout Faes came close to an equaliser when his header hit the upright. And Italy will have more defending to do when France come to town on Sunday.      

 

Mbappe looks on as France fire blanks

But the hosts will face a France team without their talisman and captain Kylian Mbappe who was left out of Les Bleus squad for the November fixtures, though Deschamps said the player ‘wanted to come’ and the decision was his and his alone. Of course Real Madrid have plenty of work to do to chase down La Liga leaders Barcelona and Carlo Ancelotti wants his best players fit and firing, and that includes Mbappe who played the full game in Los Blancos’ Champions League loss to AC Milan last week.  

Les Bleus’ clash with Israel wasn’t short UEFA Nations League highlights but it was played in a strange atmosphere in a sparsely populated stadium. The attendance was kept low as a precaution for security reasons related to the Middle East War; but the fans who did attend watched as Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise and Warren Zaire-Emery failed to break down the Israel defence. They rained 24 shots down on the visitors’ goal including eight on target, but Israel keeper Daniel Peretz repelled everything they could throw at him.      

 

History

Italy have been Nations League semi-finalists in 2021 and 2023 while France were the champions in 2021, and the latest UEFA Nations League betting odds say Les Bleus are the more likely winners in 2025, joint third favourites alongside Portugal, behind Spain and Germany and just ahead of the Azzurri.

France have had the better results in this fixture in recent times, winning three on the bounce before the defeat at the Parc des Princes in September.     

In terms of recent form Italy have won four and drawn one of their Nations League games, a 2-2 stalemate at home to Belgium, scoring 12 goals and conceding five, while Les Bleus have won three, drawn the one against Israel and lost their opener against Italy with a goal difference of nine to five.   

 

Betting Tip

Italy are priced at 2.60 to win this final game with France the marginal SBOTOP favourites at 2.55.

Home advantage at the Guiseppe Meazza Stadium in this friendly meeting will give the Azzurri a good chance to hold on to the top spot and I expect they will, but beating Les Bleus twice in two months will prove difficult, and Deschamps’ men have some pride on the line. 

   

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