Switzerland vs Italy
Switzerland will look to reprise their giant-killer role in their upcoming Euro 2024 Round of 16 match that will take place in Berlin on Saturday night.
Three years ago, at this same juncture, the Swiss scored one of the biggest upsets of the competition when they eliminated France via penalties, with the help of Kylian Mbappe’s massive blunder.
Murat Yakin’s group is hoping for the same outcome against Luciano Spalletti’s Italy this weekend, who have been mostly underwhelming in this tournament despite being the reigning champions.
Switzerland made it this far by going undefeated in Group A, while Italy needed a late miracle in their last Group B game to qualify for the knockouts.
Without further ado, here is the SBOTOP preview of this intriguing contest.
Talking Points
Switzerland to miss key defender
Murat Yakin may have to switch up his tactics against Italy because they will miss one of their key players on Saturday, as Silvan Widmer is suspended for one match.
The Mainz wing-back picked up his second booking in their 1-1 draw against Germany on Monday. And because of the updated Euro 2024 rules, two yellow cards warrant a one-match ban that will take effect in the Round of 16 but will be wiped clean after the quarter-finals.
Assuming Yakin maintains his 3-4-2-1 formation, Rennes midfielder Fabian Rieder will be the makeshift right wing-back in Widmer’s place this weekend.
In other Euro 2024 news, Breel Embolo finally started for the first time in Euro 2024, and the AS Monaco forward had a good performance against the mighty Germans.
Because he is now 100-per cent fit, he is expected to continue to lead up front for the Swiss, with Kwadwo Duah and Zeki Amdouni as his backups.
However, the real key player for Switzerland is Granit Xhaka, as he continues to pull the strings in midfield. The Bayer Leverkusen veteran now has two Man of the Match awards in this tournament, which is one behind Thierry Henry (2000), Andres Iniesta (2012), and Andrea Pirlo (2012) for most in a single Euros.
Italy struggling for firepower
Italy barely escaped Group B to qualify for the Round of 16. If it weren’t for Mattia Zaccagni’s late equaliser against Croatia, their title defence would have come to an abrupt end.
So, despite the favourable odds, Italy should be considered the underdogs against Switzerland, especially with breakout star Riccardo Calafiori suspended due to having two yellow cards. Gianluca Mancini is expected to replace Calafiori at centre-half this weekend.
Luciano Spalletti, for some reason, decided to play a 3-1-4-2 formation in their 1-1 draw against Croatia, which hasn’t worked. After lacklustre performances from Mateo Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori, the former Napoli boss would likely start Federico Chiesa, Gianluca Scamacca, and Mattia Zaccagni up front.
The most consistent player so far for the Azzurri in this competition has been their goalkeeper, Gianluigi Donnarumma, who might be in for a long night against the stubborn Swiss.
History
As mentioned, Switzerland scored one of the biggest upsets of Euro 2020 against France in the Round of 16, but they eventually fell short to Spain in the quarter-finals.
Italy, on the other hand, went all the way to winning it all, defeating Austria, Belgium, Spain, and England in their wake.
2020 was Italy’s second European Cup triumph after their first one in 1968. Switzerland, meanwhile, have never gotten past the quarter-finals in the Euros.
Switzerland and Italy’s last two meetings ended in draws (0-0 and 1-1) during the group stage of the World Cup 2022 qualifiers. Overall, Italy haven’t lost to Switzerland in 11 straight games since a 1-0 defeat during the World Cup 1994 qualifiers.
Betting Tip
The Euro 2024 odds have Italy as the slight favourites to win this game, despite the vulnerabilities they’ve shown so far in this competition. The Azzurri are priced at 2.49 to win, whereas the Swiss are not far behind at 3.08, and a draw is valued at 2.90 in the 1X2 market.
However, if this turns out to be a low-scoring affair, we expect Switzerland to come away with the victory, hence our recommended bet above, while alternative bets like Under 2.00 at 1.93, Under 2.25 at 1.68, Under 2.50 at 1.49, and Total Goal 0-1 at 2.47 should be considered too.
A Correct Score of 1-0 in favour of Switzerland is also a top bet to think about, given its 7.10 offer, while the same result for Italy would give a decent payday of 5.70.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (
) BETS ARE WORTH:
= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
= €10 (CONFIDENT)
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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