Champions League: Can You Bet Against the Euro Champs?

Liverpool vs Paris Saint-Germain

They are the European champions, the holders of the Champions League and a side in a rich vein of form.

So, given they travel to Liverpool for the second leg of the quarter-final with a 2-0 advantage, does anyone realistically expect them to let the lead slip?

I certainly don’t.

Talking Points

Yes, the Parisiens are taking on a side who pushed them closer than anyone en route to their success last season.

Yes, the contest is only effective at half-time.

Yes, they are taking on opponents who have overcome bigger deficits before, a talented Liverpool side who were 2-0 winners over Fulham in the Premier League on Saturday, thanks to first half goals from academy graduate Rio Ngumoha and the soon-to-depart Mohamed Salah.

It’s just when you look at the sheer gulf between the two teams in the first leg a week ago, when PSG delivered such Champions League 2026 highlights and could have won by a bigger margin, you do wonder if the outcome will be any different a mere six days on.

This is the side which destroyed Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate (5-2 at home and 3-0 away) just a matter of weeks ago.

They have also had a free weekend after the French footballing authorities allowed their Ligue 1 match to be postponed to prepare for this tie.

Putting the question of fairness to one side, the same luxury has never been provided to English clubs and PSG could be primed to take full advantage.

Can Liverpool still advance to the semis after losing to PSG in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final? — Virgil van Dijk in action during the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final between Liverpool and PSG

Certainly, an exit for big-spending Liverpool at home could lead to unhappiness directed at manager Arne Slot as this competition offers his team their last shot at silverware.

On the injury front, it’s a mixed bag for both sides.

Midfielder Curtis Jones had to come off in the Merseysiders’ victory against the Cottagers with a groin injury so is likely to be absent but, otherwise, Slot should have a full squad at his disposal.

For PSG, Bradley Barcola could return following an ankle problem. The Frenchman had returned to full training before the first leg but that fixture came slightly too early for him.

PSG were due to face Ligue 1 title challengers Lens either side of these two legs but the authorities granted their request to postpone the match.

That will give them another advantage on top of the two goal lead they travel with.

History

PSG and Liverpool have had their battles in the Champions League in the past few years. They first met in Europe’s showpiece event in the 2018-19 group stage, where both sides won on home soil, Liverpool winning 3-2 before a 2-1 PSG success.

Last season, a late goal from Harvey Eliott won the first leg of their last 16 tie in Paris but PSG repeated the feat at Anfield when Ousmane Dembele scored the only goal and Luis Enrique’s men went onto win 4-1 on penalties.

Last week, Désiré Doué’s first-half strike and a nonchalant Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish put them 2-0 in the ascendancy.

PSG are actually undefeated in their last seven Champions League knockout games (won six, drawn one), one shy of the record for a French side. However, defending champions have exited the quarter-final stage in four of the last five editions.

Overall, PSG lead their head-to-head clashes with four victories to three and I remember the two teams meeting for the first ever time in the quarter-finals of the 1997 European Cup Winners Cup.

PSG won 3-0 on home turf in the Parc des Princes courtesy of goals from Leonardo, Benoit Cauet and Jerome Leroy.

Liverpool, managed by Roy Evans, found the net in the second leg through Robbie Fowler and Mark Wright.

The French club, though, were 3-2 winners on aggregate and went all the way to the final where they lost 1-0 to Sir Bobby Robson’s Barcelona.