Premier League: Euro-chasing Duo Seek Seasonal Uplift

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Of all the Boxing Day Premier League fixtures, this is the one which intrigues me the most.

It’s a meeting between two sides who can smell Europe and having had a taste of it – Newcastle were in the Champions League last season and Aston Villa are this – want it to become a regular occurrence.

With just two points and two places separating the sides in eighth and sixth spots, we could be in for some seasonal Premier League 2024 highlights.

 

Talking Points 

Naturally, it’s the strikers who attract much of the focus of this SBOTOP observer and this clash is no different.

In the home corner is Alexander Isak whose weekend hat-trick took the headlines at Portman Road and he is a man in a rich vein of form.

On saying that, despite his treble, he was not the game’s best player in east Anglia.

For nobody in an Ipswich shirt could get close to Sandro Tonali, who ran the show. The Italian had a chastening first year in English football but he looks a talent from the top bracket and is hitting a vein of super form.

Of course, Villa have top talents of their own and no could begrudge them a second successive fully deserved home victory over champions Manchester City on Saturday.

Like their counterparts, Villa have an attacking gem of their own in Ollie Watkins , although inspirational manager Unai Emery has a nice headache up front with the in-form Jhon Duran.

After opening the scoring against City, Duran now has seven Premier League goals this term. Only Bayern Munich’s Jamal Musiala (nine) has netted more goals in the big-five European leagues in 2024-25, among all players aged 21 or under.

The star against City, however, was Morgan Rogers who never made a senior appearance for them in the two years he spent there.

He left for Middlesbrough in the summer of 2023 and 18 months later was given a standing ovation by the home fans at Villa Park when the winger was replaced late on against his former club.

Despite the difficulty of juggling domestic and European commitments, Villa have never dropped out of top-four contention this season and only goal difference separates them from Nottingham Forest in fourth place.

Newcastle have an advantage with no European football to occupy them with and a much less congested calendar but would crave to be in Villa’s position.

With league points at a premium, even at this stage the outcome of this contest could be crucial come next May.

 

History

Newcastle have historically had the edge in this fixture with 75 victories compared to 59 Villa triumphs and 39 draws.

Villa took the honours in resounding fashion in their first ever meetings in the FA Cup in 1895 and 1897 respectively.

In the inaugural game in a second round tie at Villa Park, the scorers were Charlie Athersmith (two), John Devey (two), William Dorrell (two) and George Russell with Bill Thompson netting the Newcastle consolation in a 7-1 romp.

It was 5-1 two years later at the first round stage when Athersmith was on target again.

Newcastle secured their first ever victory over Villa in a league encounter in 1900 – Alex Gardner and Jack Preddie (two) the marksmen in a 3-2 victory at St James’ Park.

Last season saw Newcastle completed a league double over Villa, although it was Villa who ultimately matched Newcastle’s fourth place from the previous season to secure Champions League qualification.

For the first time in over a decade, Newcastle won at Villa Park with a 3-1 success in January.

Fabian Schar scored twice in five first half minutes to set them on their way and victory was assured when Alex Moreno scored an own goal early in the second half.

Watkins added a consolation for Villa.

Newcastle have enjoyed home comforts against Villa in recent seasons, including on the opening weekend of last season.

A 5-1 win that day saw Tonali score an early opener for a dream debut.

Moussa Diaby quickly equalised but the Toon Army then took control with Isak (two), Callum Wilson and another debutant, Harvey Barnes, completing the coup de grace.

 

Betting Tip

 Our Premier League 2024 betting has made Newcastle favourites far more than I was expecting.

Perhaps it’s because the match is on Tyneside, that traditional footballing hotbed.

Yet Villa can compete with the best of them and can be considered good value, both 1X2 @ 3.37 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.28.

Certainly, Newcastle, both 1X2 @ 1.94 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.20 are an attractive bet but I won’t be predicting a repeat of this match from last season – an opening weekend hammering in favour of the hosts.

In fact, a 5-1 home victory is not even on offer, although 4-1 will pay out @ 32.00 with Correct Score.

I think there will be goals and so do the pundits who have total goal 2-3 @ 2.07. 4-6 @ 2.73 and over 3.25 @ 2.31 among the options.

Total Goal 0-1 is on offer @ 4.00 incidentally.

I am going to opt for honours even and a 1X2 Draw @ 3.46 as my *** bet.

   

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